El Nino Turns Strong, Could Be Strongest on Record by December; Is La Nina Coming Next? What It Means for Pune’s Winter and the 2027 Monsoon
NOAA says a strong to very strong El Nino will last till early 2027 and La Nina is unlikely before mid-2027. What it could mean for Pune’s winter and monsoon.
Photo: Arnova / CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons
Pune, 1st November 2026: “La Nina” has been one of the most searched weather terms in India this week, with many people wondering whether a harsh winter is on the way. The latest forecasts from the United States’ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) point the other way for now: the Pacific is in the grip of a strong El Nino, and La Nina is not expected anytime soon.
What NOAA’s latest update says
In its 8 October 2026 discussion, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center kept an El Nino Advisory in place. It said a strong to very strong El Nino is likely through January to March 2027, with a chance of more than 83 percent.
The ocean readings are unusual. Sea surface temperatures in parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific were more than 4 degrees Celsius above normal in September. NOAA put the chance of a historic event, stronger than any since 1950, at 83 percent for the October to December period.
So when could La Nina come?
Not before the middle of next year, going by current forecasts. As reported this week, NOAA sees La Nina chances as negligible through March to May 2027. For May to July 2027, it gives La Nina a 13 percent chance and neutral conditions a 70 percent chance. Columbia University’s International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) also sees neutral conditions as most likely for June to August 2027.
Some older reports from last year spoke of La Nina bringing a bitter winter to India. Those referred to the 2025 to 2026 season and do not apply to this winter.
What El Nino could mean for Pune
El Nino and La Nina are about ocean temperatures thousands of kilometres away, but they influence Indian weather. Broadly, El Nino years have often been linked with weaker monsoons and warmer-than-usual conditions in India, while La Nina years have been linked with good rain and colder winters. These are tendencies, not guarantees. The Indian Ocean Dipole and local factors also matter.
For Pune, this suggests caution rather than alarm:
- Winter: India Meteorological Department (IMD) has not yet issued its detailed outlook for December to February. Pune still gets its usual chilly mornings in December and January in most years, though a strong El Nino can mean fewer very cold spells.
- Water: The city has been allotted 13 TMC this year, and the state has planned stock till August 2027. A weak 2027 monsoon would put more pressure on Khadakwasla and other dams. Read our report on Pune’s water supply plan.
- Air quality: Dry, still winter days trap dust and pollutants. Pune’s AQI already stayed above 100 on most days in October, as we reported in our Pune air quality story.
IMD usually releases its first long-range monsoon forecast for the next year in April. That will give a clearer picture for 2027.
We will update this article when IMD issues its winter outlook.
Frequently asked questions
Is La Nina active in 2026?
No. NOAA says a strong El Nino is active and expected to last through January to March 2027. La Nina chances are negligible till at least March to May 2027.
Will Pune have a cold winter in 2026?
IMD has not yet issued its detailed winter outlook. Pune usually sees cold mornings in December and January, but a strong El Nino can reduce very cold spells.
Does El Nino affect the Indian monsoon?
El Nino years have often been linked with below-normal monsoon rain in India, while La Nina years tend to bring above-normal rain. Other factors such as the Indian Ocean Dipole also play a role.
When will IMD release the 2027 monsoon forecast?
IMD usually releases its first long-range monsoon forecast in April.
