Share Market Outlook For 29th September 2025: Will Sensex & Nifty Recover Or Fall Again?

By Shreyal for PuneriPages.in

The Indian share market is gearing up for a tense and uncertain opening on Monday, 29th September 2025, with investors nervously asking a simple question: will the Sensex and Nifty bounce back or sink deeper?

On Friday, September 26, markets faced a bloodbath. The BSE Sensex crashed by more than 2,500 points, while the Nifty 50 lost over 3%, leaving investors shaken. This wasn’t just another correction; it was a full-blown panic triggered by Donald Trump’s aggressive trade war rhetoric, targeting Indian pharma exports and H-1B visa fees.

As we head into Monday, all eyes are on whether this was just a one-day overreaction—or the start of something worse. In this article, we analyze the share market outlook for 29th September 2025, breaking down the factors that will decide if the session turns positive or negative.

Friday’s Carnage: What Exactly Happened

The Crash

Friday’s trading session will be remembered as one of the worst of 2025. The Sensex tanked 2,500+ points in a single day, and the Nifty 50 slipped below key psychological levels. Investors across sectors were caught off guard.

The Trigger

The meltdown was directly linked to comments from former US President Donald Trump, who threatened steep tariffs on Indian pharmaceutical exports and signaled a significant hike in H-1B visa fees. Both moves, if implemented, would hit two of India’s most sensitive sectors—IT and Pharma—right at their core.

Market Mood

This wasn’t a correction based on overvaluations. Instead, it was a geopolitical shock. Investors hate uncertainty, and Trump’s threats brought back memories of previous trade wars and tariff battles. The result: panic selling across the board.

Key Factors That Will Decide Monday’s Trend

So, will Monday be positive or negative? The truth is, no one knows for sure. But here are the key factors shaping the share market outlook for 29th September 2025:

1. Global Market Cues – The Deciding Factor

Indian markets don’t operate in isolation. What happens in the US and Asian markets before Monday’s open will be critical.

US Market Reaction: On Friday night (India time), US markets absorbed Trump’s comments. If the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and NASDAQ managed to recover, Indian traders may find hope. But if Wall Street plunged further, expect the Sensex and Nifty to follow suit.
Asian Market Trends: Before Indian markets open, early trades from Japan’s Nikkei, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, and China’s Shanghai Composite will set the tone. A positive Asia could act as a cushion, while a red Asia will drag India further down.

2. Weekend Developments

The period between Friday evening and Monday morning is crucial.

Any Clarification from Trump: If Trump softens his tone or offers reassurances, markets may calm down. If he doubles down, expect more volatility.
Government Response: Statements from the Indian Finance Minister or Commerce Ministry could help soothe panic. A strong, confident message could trigger a relief rally.

3. FII and DII Activity

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) are the biggest movers in Indian markets.

FII Selling: Friday’s data will reveal how aggressively FIIs sold. If the number is high, continued pressure is likely.
DII Buying: Domestic Institutional Investors (mutual funds, insurance firms) often step in to buy during sharp falls. If they ramped up buying, it may cushion Monday’s fall.

4. Currency Movement (USD/INR)

The Rupee’s performance is another critical signal.

If the Rupee Weakens Sharply: It means FIIs are pulling money out, which could add to equity market pressure.
If the Rupee Holds Steady: It suggests resilience, giving hope for stability.

Sector-Specific Outlook for Monday

1. IT and Pharma – Still Under Fire

Since Trump’s comments directly targeted these sectors, they remain under the scanner. Expect a weak opening unless there’s positive news.

2. FMCG and Domestic Plays – Possible Safe Havens

Companies focused purely on Indian demand—like FMCG and retail—might see less damage. Investors looking for safety may rotate money into these names.

3. Banking – Highly Volatile

Banks usually mirror the broader market. If Monday starts weak, banks will take a hit. But if a bounce comes, expect banks to lead the recovery.

Analyst Viewpoint: What Experts Are Saying

Most market experts are united on one point: caution.

Some analysts suggest that the market is “oversold” and could see a dead cat bounce—a small, temporary recovery after a steep fall.
Others warn that unless there is positive news from Trump or the US, any bounce will be short-lived.
Consensus: avoid aggressive buying and wait for clarity.

Possible Scenarios for Monday

Let’s break down three potential outcomes for the share market outlook for 29th September 2025:

Scenario 1: Relief Rally (Positive Opening)

If global cues improve and Trump softens his stance, we may see a relief rally. The Sensex could open 200–300 points higher, driven by bargain-hunting.

Scenario 2: Dead Cat Bounce (Temporary Recovery)

The market may open strong but fail to sustain gains. Selling pressure may re-emerge in IT and Pharma stocks, capping the upside.

Scenario 3: More Pain Ahead (Negative Opening)

If US markets fell heavily on Friday and Trump’s weekend remarks remain hostile, Monday could bring another wave of selling, with Sensex down 500+ points.

Practical Advice for Investors

Stay Calm: Avoid panic selling. Sharp corrections often create long-term opportunities.
Don’t Try to Time the Bottom: It’s risky to buy aggressively during high volatility.
Diversify: Consider safer sectors like FMCG or utilities.
Keep Cash Ready: If markets fall further, opportunities will arise.

A Nervous Start Expected

In conclusion, the share market outlook for 29th September 2025 is clouded with uncertainty. While a relief bounce is possible, the overall sentiment remains fragile. The direction will depend less on Indian fundamentals and more on global cues and Trump’s weekend stance.

Investors should prepare for volatility and resist the urge to “catch a falling knife.” Patience and caution will be key.

⚠️ Disclaimer

This article is an analytical outlook based on available data and geopolitical developments. It does not constitute financial advice. Readers are advised to consult professional financial advisors before making investment decisions.