How Many Times Does The Repo Rate Change In 2025 RBI?

By Prashant for PuneriPages.in

If you’ve ever thought, “How many times does the repo rate change in 2025 RBI?”, you’re not alone. Every time the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) meets, markets, borrowers, and depositors hold their breath. In this article, I’ll walk you through what we know, what experts expect, and how many shifts in the repo rate you might actually see this year — without making wild guesses.

What Is the Repo Rate & Why It Matters

Before we dive into predictions, let’s quickly re-ground ourselves in what the repo rate is and why it matters to you.

The repo rate is the rate at which RBI lends to commercial banks for short term (usually 90 days).
Changes in repo rate influence borrowing costs (home loans, personal loans), bank lending behavior, and the overall liquidity in the system.
The RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets periodically (typically six times a year) to decide whether to raise, lower, or maintain the repo rate.

So when you ask, “How many times does the repo rate change in 2025 RBI?”, part of the answer lies in how many MPC meetings there are, and part lies in how many of those meetings actually see rate moves.

The Current Situation: Where We Stand

As of the latest policy decision, the RBI has kept the repo rate at 5.50%. Press Information Bureau+2mint+2

In 2025 so far:

The RBI has made rate cuts earlier in the year (cumulatively about 100 basis points) before pausing at its recent meetings. www.ndtv.com+2mint+2
In its October 2025 review, the MPC opted for a “pause” — holding the rate steady, citing moderation in inflation and a balanced growth outlook. mint+2Press Information Bureau+2

This suggests that in 2025, the RBI has already shown flexibility to adjust rates, but also the willingness to pause and observe the impact of past moves.

Forecasting 2025: How Many Changes Are Likely?

Now, to the main question: How many times does the repo rate change in 2025 RBI? Based on current data, expert forecasts, and historical behavior, here are the scenarios I see:

🟢 Base Case (Most Likely): 1 to 2 Changes

Experts currently lean toward one or two more rate moves in 2025 (likely cuts) if inflation stays benign and growth shows signs of slowing.
The RBI may prefer to use its remaining MPC meetings to fine-tune, rather than aggressive changes.
A mild cut of 25 basis points in one of the later meetings (December) is often mentioned as plausible.

🔵 Optimistic Case: 3 Changes

If inflation remains persistently low and global headwinds ease, RBI may feel comfortable cutting more aggressively—potentially three cuts (spread across meetings).
This would hinge on favorable food price trends, stable crude oil prices, and strong credit demand.

🔴 Conservative Case: 0 Changes

If global volatility, sudden inflation spikes (e.g., due to supply shocks), or fiscal pressures emerge, RBI might opt to keep rates steady for the rest of 2025.
The recent pause indicates the central bank is cautious, waiting to see how earlier cuts play out.

Hence, the most balanced forecast is 1 to 2 repo rate changes in 2025.

What Drives the Decisions: Key Influencing Factors

To understand why and when the rate might change, here are the key variables that the MPC will watch closely:

Factor	What to Watch	Why It Matters
Inflation (CPI, WPI, Food Prices)	If inflation remains low and within the RBI’s 2–6% band, there’s room for cuts.	A spike in inflation would force RBI’s hand to pause or even hike.
GDP Growth & Economic Activity	Slower growth or decline in industrial activity may push RBI to ease.	RBI balances inflation control with growth support.
Global Cues	Fed rate policy, crude oil prices, global demand.	External pressures can sway RBI’s comfort with cuts.
Fiscal & Government Borrowing	High government borrowing could keep upward pressure on yields.	If government borrowing is large, RBI may be hesitant to cut too much.
Transmission & Liquidity Conditions	How well past cuts have flowed through banks.	RBI monitors whether its earlier rate changes are effective.

Because these variables shift, RBI’s decisions may not always anticipate the market. That’s why forecasts come with caveats.

MPC Schedule & Opportunities for Changes

In 2025, the RBI’s MPC is expected to have six scheduled meetings (roughly every two months). Not all meetings lead to repo rate changes, though. Some are used to review data, issue statements, and adjust stance.

If you get 1 or 2 actual repo rate changes, they might come in:

The October / December meetings (toward year-end)
The mid-year meeting (if inflation eases more than expected)

So each MPC meeting is a chance, but not a guarantee.

What This Means for You (Borrowers, Savers & Investors)

Borrowers / Loan Seekers: If rates are cut 1–2 times, you may see EMIs reduce modestly. But don’t expect a dramatic drop in all cases.
Savers / Fixed Deposits: Rate cuts may push down returns, but many banks lag in reducing deposit rates.
Investors / Stock Markets: Anticipation of cuts often boosts markets, especially banking, real estate, and consumer sectors.
Businesses: Lower rates can ease borrowing costs, potentially encouraging capex and investment—but only if confidence holds.

The Best Guess

So, answering your question “How many times does the repo rate change in 2025 RBI?” — my forecast is:

1 to 2 times (most likely cuts) — with a slim possibility of 3 in a very favorable scenario, or 0 if inflation surprises upward.

But remember, these are projections based on current data and expert views. Economic surprises, global shocks, or policy missteps can change the story. Keep an eye on inflation prints, MPC minutes, and central bank commentary.

I’ll update this article whenever the RBI or leading analysts revise their projections.